THE MANY PATHS TO A TRUMP WIN.
Julio Gonzalez, M.D., J.D.
Today, I am not going to predict a Trump win. Nor am I going to say that Trump is going to pull off this reelection effort. Neither will I say that Biden should get a longer lease on that basement where he is hiding. I am not going to say these things because I am very suspicious of declaring victory before it's time. Yes, as an orthopaedic surgeon, I am a great believer in jinxing oneself and in pulling defeat from the jaws of victory because of overconfidence and lack or preparation. So, I am not going to do any of those things.
However, I could share with you my gut feeling that President Trump is in an excellent position to win because of the energy gap. I could talk about the impossibility of a candidate pulling off a successful presidential race when he hides in a basement all day. I could talk to you about the discordance between the leftist message from the Harris Administration along with Joe Biden and the nation's political outlook. But I won't, not because those issues don't matter, but because in the end, the only thing that matters is the electoral map. So, I will look at this race purely from the standpoint of state loyalties.
And are there paths available through which the President can pull this off!
Let's begin with the assumptions. Whether accurate or not, there are certain states about whose outcome we can be very confident, so let's call those out. This election, it is overwhelmingly likely that California, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and three fourths of Maine are going to go for former Vice President Joe Biden, giving him 198 of the required 270 electoral votes to win. Additionally, we will give him the close states of Oregon, Colorado, and Nevada for a total of 222 votes
For his part, President Trump will win Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Missouri, Louisiana, Alaska, Arkansas, Kansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, and one fourth of Maine, giving him 234 votes.
With these assumptions laid out, and bearing in mind that President Trump needs 36 more electoral votes to take him across the finish line, then there are two general paths that materialize depending on whether or not he wins Pennsylvania.
Let us first consider the President winning Pennsylvania. Doing so would earn him 20 electoral votes, which will place him sixteen electoral votes away from winning. From there, the President could win Ohio for 18 more votes, placing him over the top. Alternatively, he could win Michigan for 16 votes, and either Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Arizona to put him over the top. Even if he does not win Michigan, a win in of any two of Minnesota, Arizona or Wisconsin would still win it for him.
The probabilities of one of these results occurring are actually very high. At this time, it appears that he is either ahead or dead even in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and even Minnesota where the word is that the predominantly-Democratic Iron Range is resoundingly behind President Trump. Michigan also appears to be behind Trump, and in Pennsylvania, the threat to fracking posed by the Harris administration in association with Joe Biden has likely sealed a state as red that came out in favor of Trump in 2016.
But what if the President were to lose Pennsylvania? If that were to happen, then we would have to approach the race from a floor of 234 votes. Under these circumstances, then Ohio becomes critical because an Ohio win would place him at 252 electoral votes and eighteen short of a victory. Under those circumstances a Minnesota win along with any other state would put Trump over the top as would a combined win of Arizona and Michigan or Wisconsin. And these scenarios are considered without upset wins in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Wisconsin, Utah, New Jersey, or (dare I say it?) New York. If any of these were to happen, and each is possible at this point, the paths to victory for trump multiply.
So, no, I am not going to say that the President will win this election. I will not predict that Harris will lose. Nope. All I'm gonna say is get ready for a massive stock market boom come January, for continued liberal nervous breakdowns, and for the appointment of at least one more conservative judge to the Supreme Court during the next four years.
As to the rest, you do the math.
Dr. Julio Gonzalez is an orthopaedic surgeon and lawyer living in Venice, Florida. He served in the Florida House of Representatives. He is the author of numerous books including The Federalist Pages, The Case for Free Market Healthcare, and Coronalessons. He is available for appearances and book signings, and can be reached through www.thefederalistpages.com.
Dr. Julio Gonzalez is an orthopedic surgeon living in Florida. He is a lawyer, author, and former member of the Florida House of Representatives. He is available for speaking engagements at firstname.lastname@example.org